Victory or peace? How the level of support
for the war has changed
From June 29 to July 5, we conducted the 6th wave of our research to see the turning point in Russians’ attitude towards the war with Ukraine.
The level of support for the war has dropped by 9 percent points, or 14%, reaching a historic minimum of 55%.
Since mid-May, the number of the “special operation” "supporters" decreased from 64% to 55%, which amounts to 14% in relative terms. Thus, 1 in 7 “supporters” of the “special operation” no longer “supported” it, started to doubt it, or refused to answer the question.
Interestingly, the number of those who get information from government-controlled media has equally dropped by 9 percent points.
What could change your attitude?
We asked the remaining war supporters what could change their attitude towards the war.
The most popular answers were the following:
the war dragging on the army’s unprofessionalism
If lies or new facts about the “special operation” turn up
Treason in the Russian Army
If mobilizations or a fully-fledged / nuclear war starts
If the war turns out violent
Mass killings/genocide against the Ukrainians
Unprofitable peace treaty
Huge losses among civilians
and the military
If the “operation” involves me or my relatives
Worsening of living standards Сoup d'etat
Feeling of the war’s injustice
Are the Russians ready to financially support the war?
Only 8.4% of the respondents claimed to be ready to give more than 10% of their income to the army. 63.4% said they were ready to give a Jack squat, that is, nothing.
That comes as no surprise, since 56% of the respondents stated they had to cut on food due to the price growth, 39% said their family’s income had decreased, and 12% reported they or someone from their family had lost their job.
Due to the “special operation”, 25.7% of the Russians seized baing friends with some of their close ones or relatives.
43% admitted having depression, anxiety, or panic attacks (the number is about 10 percent points higher than it has been throughout the other months of war).
Do the Russians crave victory?
Only 3.3% of the Russians crave “national pride”, “acquisition of territories”, “strengthening of Russia’s positions”, or “victory over nazis.”
55% of the respondents said, if Russia won the war, the victory would not benefit them personally in any way.
28.5% believe that Russia’s possible victory would bring them “peace,” “moral satisfaction,” “trips to the relatives in Ukraine/other post-soviet states,” “security,” normalisation of the economic situation,” “sanctions' relief,” “friendship with neighbours,” “coming back home of all the loved ones”.
In other words, the Russians want back everything they had before the war.
This means, what they really crave is not victory, it is peace.
By transferring money to support our project, you are helping to tell people in Russia and abroad about what (and, most importantly, why) the people of Russia think about the war with Ukraine. Our goal is to change public opinion about the war. Propaganda speaks of almost unconditional support for the war by citizens of the Russian Federation, but in reality everything is radically more complicated: the level of support is lower than “official” opinion polls show, and this support is not at all what it seems. We will spend all donations made in cryptocurrency on conducting opinion polls and creating analytics.
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