Chronicles 2
You can view the text of the full report, the questionnare and the database of respondents' responses in Russian in our repository on GitHub. If you need these files in English, please, write to us at web@chronicles.report.
Wartime Censorship. How to Measure Fear?
On March, 4, 2022 full-fledged censorship was introduced in Russia. Being openly against the war may lead to up to 15 years in jail. Russians are prohibited to call the war by its name, "war".
Having held an all-Russian phone poll on March, 10-13, 2022, we found out that respondents tend to avoid straightforward answers and conceal their place of residence in fear of prosecution.
This means that polls are no longer reliable sources of information on public opinion. What they do show, though, is the measure of fear among the society.
Wartime Censorship. How to Measure Fear?
On March, 4, 2022 full-fledged censorship was introduced in Russia. Being openly against the war may lead to up to 15 years in jail. Russians are prohibited to call the war by its name, "war".
Having held an all-Russian phone poll on March, 10-13, 2022, we found out that respondents tend to avoid straightforward answers and conceal their place of residence in fear of prosecution.
This means that polls are no longer reliable sources of information on public opinion. What they do show, though, is the measure of fear among the society.
Telephone Poll Quotes
Male, 51 years old, city
“Well, you understand that if I say no, it will be ... a provocative question. Therefore, I will, of course, tell you that this is a special military operation. Because any other opinion is fraught with criminal consequences, which I don’t want to bear.”
Male, 58 years old, city
“Well, it’s now prohibited by law to answer what you think on this topic. Therefore I will refrain. I would like to [answer the question about support or non-support for the war], but I do not have the right to do so.”
Woman, 53, village
“I don't know, if I answer you, they'll come for me tomorrow and the police will take me away. [Interviewer's explanation] So they won't arrest me, right?”
War or operation?
We asked the Russians if they believed the actions of Russia in Ukraine were a "special military operation" (the term used by the official propaganda instead of "war"). 63,3% respondents agreed. But search requests show vice versa (see the table, blue for "war", red for "operation"):
Yandex, Russia's most popular search engine, registered 47 558 925 "war in Ukraine" requests in a month, while only 83 236 requests read "military operation in Ukraine." This makes the prohibited "war" term 570 times more frequent than the officially forced "operation".
Are Wartime Polls Any Good at All?
Wartime surveys help us test hypotheses. First and foremost, we wanted to see if censorship succeeds in making Russians afraid of speaking their minds.
We asked part of our respondents about their attitude towards the war in the beginning of the survey and another part — closer to the end of the survey (which made a 4-minutes difference).
The results show that the longer a person talks to the interviewer, the higher are their chances to provide a socially acceptable response (i.e. to say they "support the military operation").
The more spontaneous the answer is, the more likely it is to be sincere, even when the opinion does not go in line with the expected reply or the law.
Asking the Russians whether they supported the military action (yes/no), we told part of the respondents they could avoid answering at all. After that, the share of those "in support" of the war lessened by 7%.
Taking into account that to support the war in Russia is completely safe, we can suggest that at least 7% of respondents provide socially acceptable answers because they are afraid.
So Russians Do Not Speak Their Minds out of Fear?
Yes. The Russian meme reads: "How Pollsters See Themselves VS How Respondents See Them". But apart from fear, there is a "majority influence phenomenon" used by the propaganda. Russian official sources constantly claim that the "special operation" is supported by the vast majority of the Russians.
According to the Asch conformity experiment, up to 40% of people are inclined to support the majority's views even when they contradict their own opinion and/or real facts and common sense. Thus, the propaganda manipulates the results of public opinion polls, trying to make those against war feel that they are alone and everybody else is in favor of the war.